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Joe Biden was forecast to win the election comfortably with wide margins. And while he did pull out a victory—claiming 306 electors—the state-level results are much closer than expected: The Democratic nominee was forecast by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight to win Wisconsin by 8.3 percentage points and Pennsylvania by 4.7 points, however, he only took the states by 0.6 points and 1.2 points, respectively.
So just how far off are pollsters and forecasters?
Now that most states have certified their election results, Fortune calculated 2020 model/polling errors. The difference between a battleground state’s projected margin and the final result is its “polling error.”